Earlier today, Internet researcher and commentator, Arthur Goldstuck, presented the findings of World Wide Worx’s much anticipated “Internet Access in South Africa 2008″ study during the keynote of the Networkers at Cisco Live! conference which finished today at the Sandton Convention Centre.
Amongst the highlights were the fact that the Internet user base in South Africa has seen its highest rate of growth since 2001, increasing by 12.5% to 4,5-million in 2008.
I strongly suggest requesting a copy of the full report from World Wide Worx, but a summary of the trends and key findings are as follows:
Trend 1: There has been a 16% increase in Internet service providers
Trend 2: Hundreds of rogue and unlicensed networks are in existence
Trend 3: ADSL dominance is ending as a result of wireless broadband
Trend 4: Wireless broadband has entered the mainstream
Trend 5: Broadband culture has taken hold in SA
Trend 6: Dial-up at the end of its lifespan
Trend 7: ADSL has grown through SME installations
Trend 8: Cellphone Internet usage contributed to the Internet base
Trend 9: 12.5% jump in Internet users
Trend 10: Internet Adoption curve recovers
Trend 11: Strong growth predicted over next 5 years
Trend 12: Repeat adoption patterns
Trend 13: Experience curve flattens
Trend 14: But the experience curve will kick in again
Trend 15: Inflection point in 2013
Trend 16: More Bandwidth and increased caps!
Overall, the findings confirm what many, including myself, believe paint a bright future for South Africa’s maturing Internet population with the gap slowly closing between us and the developed world. Once SEACOM (the new fibre optic cable that will connect the East Coast of Africa to Southern Africa, Europe and Asia) goes into operation in mid-2009, the wholesale price of bandwidth is expected to come down drastically while connection speeds will far exceed anything experienced in the past.
Thanks to factors such as SEACOM and Fifa 2010, Goldstuck predicts that SA’s Internet Population will grow by 13.3% in 2009 & a whopping 17.6% in 2010!!!
It wasn’t all good news however, and Goldstuck did issue some caveats about the growing inequality gap that is emerging between South Africa’s haves and have-nots. For example, even under these new favourable conditions, it could take as long as 10 years before the previously disadvantaged are properly integrated due to the 5 year Internet experience curve. The fact remains that all the bandwidth in the world is pointless unless basic social and environmental factors are addressed such as literacy and access to reliable power.
Goldstuck also says that next year’s national elections are a key milestone and will largely determine whether the government is able to deliver on its social promises or not and whoever takes over as the next Minister of Communications will play an equally vital role in shaping the future.
Read Paul Jacobson’s post for more on this topic.
Follow the Networkers at Cisco Live! conference on YouTube, Flickr, Twitter, Facebook or check out their very funky social media press release.
UPDATE: An edited version of Goldstuck’s presentation was uploaded on YouTube (watch below):
1 Paul Jacobson Dec 4th, 2008 at 7:53 pmThanks for the link. I completely forgot about the press release when I published my post.
2 Daniel Dec 5th, 2008 at 9:31 amSorry, but what a load of bollocks!!
This country has a very unique situation where Internet access is deemed a luxury lifestyle accessory. Telkom, and the ISP’s, have done everything in their power to shunt this country to the back of the queue when it comes to the net.
I was paying 20US for a 2mb connection in Cambodia, yes CAMBODIA, and yet here I’m paying nearly 2500 rand for a 512k line which is constantly slow and frustrating.
The trends are also a little warped, and this is coming from someone who has spent the past 10 years implementing, securing and using broadband technology.
Trend 5: Broadband culture has taken hold in SA
How? I see such a small amount of e-commerce being offered in this country still. There are a handful of sites which are local, the rest being outside of the border.
Trend 16: More Bandwidth and increased caps!
Say what??? caps are the main reason why this country is still behind. Let’s see, you can have a 4mb line, but a 1gb cap. That’s the same as giving a person a Porsche and allowing them to use it on the driveway.
Until Telkom stop strangling the country with their archaic methods, Internet access will be a luxury tool only available to middle-class families.
3 Art2 Dec 5th, 2008 at 4:23 pmSo what is it exactly you are saying? That I am lying because I am counting more people connecting to small businesses’ ADSL connections? That I am talking nonsense because I dare to suggest that a new undersea cable will increase our bandwidth dramatically? That I am smoking something if I believe that a 40-fold increase in bandwidth will result in increased caps? The reality is that we are probably on the same side of the argument. In fact, it is part of our ongoing argument that the Internet is still treated as a luxury in this country – doled out like fine wine instead of being supplied almost freely like water when that is how it ought to be. We continually argue that bandwidth is too expensive. But it IS going to come down, however much you may wish to focus only on the negatives.
On broadband culture, you respond: “How? I see such a small amount of e-commerce being offered in this country still. There are a handful of sites which are local, the rest being outside of the border.” I have no idea what you are trying to say. That broadband culture us defined by e-commerce?? This study is a study of connectivity trends, not of e-commerce, and the trends show clearly that dial-up is being dumped in favour of broadband, and that people have woken up to the fact that dial-up is even more expensive than broadband. But we are NOT saying broadband is cheap, however much you are trying to rubbish us.
And tour comments about more bandwidth are so entirely irrelevant to what we are saying, it sounds like you are rolling out a well-worn diatribe. We are on record as declaring that a 1GB cap is an insult on a 4Mbps connection, and that caps in fact are holding back the Internet and knowledge economy in South Africa. Our report ism looking at the impact of the new undersea cable next yar, and it MUST result in increased caps. Are you saying that everything will remain exactly as it is now?
Look at the findings in context please Daniel, and don’t piss on everyone just because you find the bathroom dirty.
4 Daniel Dec 6th, 2008 at 10:05 amNot at all, If you feel I’m trying to rubbish you, then I’ve obviously not made myself clear enough.
What I am saying is that I don’t think a new undersea cable will change things in the next 5 years. Telkom still throttles the local loop, Neotel will make a small dent, but 5 years is a little aggressive even for them.
We both agree that Internet access here is a luxury. Just because there is a new pipe, doesn’t mean Telkom/Neotel will automatically decide a larger cap is a must. The track record has been to throttle the connection and charge as much as you possibly can. A bigger pipe just means that, a bigger revenue source.
Europe is now pushing caps onto most users, and this is a continent with more bandwidth than anything else, so why would SA be any different in throttling the average user?
Anyway… sorry I spoke
5 justinspratt Apr 24th, 2009 at 5:18 pmgreat post colin, great worth arthur (as always)… and a good conversation between daniel and arthur (dont be sorry Daniel!)
my 2 rupees worth:
1. Daniel – broadband culture is not the same as e-commerce adoption and more so, the relationship is tenuous at best – they can be mutually exclusive – so agree with Arthur on this one
2. like the Porsche in driveway metaphor – brill
3. Daniel – agree on Telkom point, disgaree on ISP “shunt this counrty” – I work for IS and the reality is that the Telkom costs are an input that everyone has transparency on, ie we cant mark this up. It then leaves the internet service provision – this is cookie-cut stuff now and massively competitive – so not too sure how ISP’s can have unfairly priced? the prohibitive costs come in the Telkom last mile component. Stick to blaming Telkom and your message is well put.
4. Liberalisation / competition points: the govt talks about this but it is merely lip service. They are as culpable as the inert ignoramuses at Telkom. Why? The govt get **MASSIVE** tax flows from the licensing fees (5% on revenue from MNO’s); then you add VAT and then corporate taxes of the license holders (read: monopolists, Telkom, Vodacom, MTN)
5. I agree with Daniel on Seacom emphatically and have discussed it with the likes of Arthur and Paul previously. More importantly, you missed the lack of in country backhaul infrastructure, long term contracts with other carriers on international backhaul, etc.
Thanks for the intellectual parrying guys. was interesting. viva la broadband